There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.
The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an increase of global GHG emissions by 25 to 90% (CO2-eq) between 2000 and 2030, with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond.
Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Plenary XXVII, Valencia, Spain, 12-17 November 2007. Synthesis Report, Page 9, figure SPM.6
Notes: Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090-2099). The map shows the multi-AOGCM average projection for the A1B SRES scenario. Temperatures are relative to the period 1980-1999.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Plenary XXVII, Valencia, Spain, 12-17 November 2007. Synthesis Report, Page 10, figure SPM.7
Note: Unless stated explicitly, all entries are from Working Group II SPM text, and are either very high confidence or high confidence statements, reflecting different sectors (agriculture, ecosystems, water, coasts, health, industry and settlements). The Working Group II SPM refers to the source of the statements, timelines and temperatures. The magnitude and timing of impacts that will ultimately be realised will vary with the amount and rate of climate change, emissions scenarios, development pathways and adaptation.
